Main challenge with the conventional approach
- There are many unknowns. It is extremely difficult to
guessright or at least uncomfortable making the guesses
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In conventional trials, we only get one guess
- If you can predict the future, no problem with the conventional approach
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- But how do we plan clinical trials when we don’t know much about what we are studying? (e.g., COVID-19 at the start of 2020)
Comments on simulations
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Type I error rate is estimated using the null effect scenario
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We can estimate the power using alternative effect scenarios
Since we specified that the treatment was better than the control,